Elo ratings

Team strength from every match of the past year, accounting for home advantage, goal difference and the off-season. Upcoming match probabilities are based on it.

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Matches in history180 297

Teams14 254

Days of history404

Updated11:37

League

Upcoming matches (1885)

Kick-off	Match	1	X	2	Exp. goals
30.10 18:00	Le Havre 1434 — Paris Saint Germain 1724 France · Ligue 1	18% 5.45	19% 5.33	63% 1.59	🔒 Pro
30.10 18:00	Nice 1530 — Rennes 1570 France · Ligue 1	41% 2.41	25% 4.00	34% 2.98	🔒 Pro
30.10 19:30	SV Elversberg 1622 — FSV Mainz 05 1667 Germany · Bundesliga	27% 3.73	20% 5.10	54% 1.87	🔒 Pro
30.10 20:00	Villarreal 1631 — Espanyol 1490 Spain · La Liga	65% 1.53	18% 5.55	17% 5.96	🔒 Pro
31.10 12:30	Chelsea 1624 — Manchester United 1569 England · Premier League	65% 1.54	17% 5.97	18% 5.47	🔒 Pro
31.10 13:00	Levante 1551 — Atletico Madrid 1681 Spain · La Liga	28% 3.58	23% 4.28	49% 2.05	🔒 Pro
31.10 14:00	Bologna 1506 — Monza 1527 Italy · Serie A	46% 2.16	22% 4.58	32% 3.14	🔒 Pro
31.10 14:30	Bayer Leverkusen 1742 — VfB Stuttgart 1702 Germany · Bundesliga	50% 1.99	22% 4.58	28% 3.59	🔒 Pro
31.10 14:30	FC Augsburg 1601 — SC Freiburg 1697 Germany · Bundesliga	42% 2.39	19% 5.19	39% 2.58	🔒 Pro
31.10 14:30	Borussia Mönchengladbach 1603 — SC Paderborn 07 1592 Germany · Bundesliga	54% 1.84	22% 4.57	24% 4.22	🔒 Pro
31.10 14:30	Werder Bremen 1583 — 1899 Hoffenheim 1599 Germany · Bundesliga	40% 2.49	21% 4.81	39% 2.57	🔒 Pro
31.10 14:30	FC Schalke 04 1603 — RB Leipzig 1650 Germany · Bundesliga	40% 2.49	24% 4.23	36% 2.76	🔒 Pro
31.10 15:00	Bournemouth 1675 — Leeds 1630 England · Premier League	62% 1.61	20% 5.13	18% 5.47	🔒 Pro
31.10 15:00	Brentford 1663 — Nottingham Forest 1547 England · Premier League	66% 1.51	19% 5.24	15% 6.84	🔒 Pro
31.10 15:00	Coventry 1551 — Sunderland 1592 England · Premier League	44% 2.29	25% 3.96	31% 3.22	🔒 Pro
31.10 15:00	Hull City 1559 — Ipswich 1567 England · Premier League	45% 2.24	26% 3.92	30% 3.34	🔒 Pro
31.10 15:00	Manchester City 1760 — Brighton 1713 England · Premier League	42% 2.37	22% 4.56	36% 2.79	🔒 Pro
31.10 15:15	Rayo Vallecano 1529 — Celta Vigo 1571 Spain · La Liga	31% 3.23	26% 3.83	43% 2.33	🔒 Pro
31.10 17:00	Udinese 1479 — AS Roma 1682 Italy · Serie A	19% 5.30	20% 4.93	61% 1.64	🔒 Pro
31.10 17:30	Tottenham 1567 — Crystal Palace 1535 England · Premier League	59% 1.68	21% 4.79	20% 5.05	🔒 Pro
31.10 17:30	Real Betis 1688 — Malaga 1566 Spain · La Liga	61% 1.63	20% 4.96	19% 5.41	🔒 Pro
31.10 17:30	Bayern München 1842 — Borussia Dortmund 1703 Germany · Bundesliga	68% 1.47	17% 5.87	15% 6.64	🔒 Pro
31.10 19:45	AC Milan 1608 — Inter 1743 Italy · Serie A	28% 3.55	22% 4.47	49% 2.02	🔒 Pro
31.10 20:00	Aston Villa 1650 — Fulham 1523 England · Premier League	59% 1.69	21% 4.67	19% 5.14	🔒 Pro
31.10 20:00	Barcelona 1787 — Alaves 1551 Spain · La Liga	78% 1.28	13% 7.83	9% 11.24	🔒 Pro

1860 more matches

All matches, expected goals, totals and BTTS — in Pro.

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Power table: England · Premier League →

#	Team	Elo	Matches	Last match
1	Manchester City	1760	17	28.10
2	Arsenal	1757	18	27.10
3	Brighton	1713	17	28.10
4	Bournemouth	1675	18	28.10
5	Brentford	1663	13	28.10
6	Liverpool	1650	18	28.10
7	Aston Villa	1650	21	28.10
8	Leeds	1630	16	25.10
9	Chelsea	1624	17	28.10
10	Sunderland	1592	19	28.10
11	Everton	1583	17	24.10
12	Manchester United	1569	18	25.10
13	Tottenham	1567	17	24.10
14	Ipswich	1567	16	23.10
15	Newcastle	1559	17	25.10
16	Hull City	1559	15	25.10
17	Coventry	1551	13	24.10
18	Nottingham Forest	1547	18	23.10
19	Crystal Palace	1535	21	28.10
20	Fulham	1523	17	28.10

Model track record

Collecting data: 10 matches played with our prediction. The table appears after 30.

How it works

Every match updates the ratings: beating a strong team gives more, so does a big score. Home advantage is 65 points. After a break of 45+ days a rating partly returns to the league average. Outcome probabilities come from a Poisson model of the teams' scoring strength adjusted by Elo. Under each percentage — the fair odds.